• Unemployment Rate Falls - Unemployment hit a 50-yr. low in September even though nonfarm payrolls rose by just 136,000 as the economy nears full employment.

• Impeachment and the Stock Market - The launch of an impeachment inquiry into President Trump tosses another wild card into a volatile stock market.

• Trade Talks Underway - U.S. & Chinese deputy trade negotiators launched a new round of talks on Monday aimed at resolving the 15-mo. trade war, with neither side showing any signs of giving ground.

In this month’s recap: The Fed cuts interest rates, the price of oil spikes, and trade negotiations between the U.S. and China are rescheduled.

THE MONTH IN BRIEF

September brought an economic event that was widely expected: a quarter-point cut in short-term interest rates by the Federal Reserve. It also brought an attack on two of the world’s largest oil fields that threatened to dent global crude output. A resumption of U.S.-China trade talks was scheduled for October, and White House officials decided to delay some planned tariff increases. Clear signals of an economic slowdown emerged from both the eurozone and China; some of the key U.S. economic indicators looked much better by comparison. While all these events transpired, the S&P 500 gained 1.72% for the month.¹

Presented by Mark Herding, CFP^®, September 2019

In this month’s recap: stocks descend as traders respond to the devaluation of the Chinese yuan as well as new developments in the ongoing U.S.-China trade talks; the price of gold rises, and bond yields fall.

THE MONTH IN BRIEF

The stock market had a tumultuous August, reacting to the sudden devaluation of the Chinese yuan and the escalation of the trade dispute between the U.S. and China. Ultimately, investors seemed more interested in risk aversion: the S&P 500 lost 1.81% for the month. Demand for bonds helped to send Treasury yields lower; prices of precious metals climbed. Away from the markets, monthly personal spending and retail sales gains were strong.¹

• Recent Jobless Claims Fall - Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped to 209,000 for the week ended August 17, 2019, falling sharply from the week before.

• Brexit Crisis Still Uncertain - British lawmakers will try to stop Boris Johnson from pursuing what they cast as a “calamitous no-deal Brexit”.

• New Wave of Tariffs in Trade War - The new tariffs are a sharp escalation in the trade war, and could cost U.S. households $800 a year.

• Economy is Steady - The economy added 164,000 nonfarm payrolls in July, as expected. Wages rose 0.3% in July, or 3.2% year over year.

• Yuan Falls - The yuan fell 1.4% which breached the key 7-per-dollar level for the first time since 2008.

• HSBC CEO Out - HSBC chief John Flint is stepping down after less than two years on the job.

• Stocks Steady amid Threatened Tariffs - Stocks were steady today after the U.S. threatened a new wave of tariffs on European goods, dulling recent optimism surrounding the U.S.-China trade truce.

• GE in Decline - GE's (GE) stock decline, down by nearly two-thirds since the end of 2016, has knocked the company down to the 59th most valuable in the S&P 500.

• OPEC, Allies Extend Supply Cut - OPEC and its allies agreed to extend oil output cuts until 3/20, seeking to prop up the price of crude as the global economy weakens and U.S. production soars.

• U.S. Stock Market Futures Fall - U.S. stock index futures fell Monday, after the China and U.S. trade relationship “intensified” over the weekend.

• U.S. Inflation Ticks Up - U.S. consumer prices increased in April, which could support the Fed’s contention that recent low inflation readings were temporary and allow the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged for a while.

• Factory Activity Slows - An escalating trade war between the U.S. and China raised fears of a global economic downturn and put pressure on policymakers to roll out more stimulus.

• Trump Threatens 25% Tariff Hike - Currently, the 10% tariff on $200 billion in Chinese imports has been a “nuisance”, with many US businesses absorbing the cost.

• Job Openings Rise Sharply - U.S. job openings rebounded sharply in March, while the pace of hiring was level, pointing to a growing worker shortage that could slow employment growth this year.

• Digital Ad Revenue over $100 Billion - A new report says internet advertising revenues in the U.S. totaled $107.5 billion in 2018.